What FGA Macro is
Most people follow markets with two tools: today's headline and their own stomach. Both fail exactly at the turns. FGA Macro answers one question every week: which phase of the market cycle are we in?
At a glance
Focus: market cycle — credit, sentiment, liquidity (the Fed) and macro
Format: a weekly cycle read — a regime classification, not a buy list
Price: free
Languages: Spanish, with English editions published regularly in the FGA Macro · English section
Published by: FGA Research & Advisory (Madrid, est. 2006)
Written by: Francisco Salvador, founder — over 25 years reading market cycles
How it works
We combine four independent readings — credit, sentiment, monetary policy and macro — into a map of six regimes, from full expansion through bear market and recovery. We don't issue buy or sell orders: we describe the regime. It is a map, not a traffic signal. No single layer decides; the regime only changes when two or more layers turn at once. That is why a loud headline is not a regime change.
Why you can check us rather than trust us
We don't sell hit rates. The robustness of the process is published in the open as an academic working paper with a permanent identifier — DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20709770, indexed on SSRN and RePEc — and every call is recorded in a dated, pre-registered public forward test, time-stamped before the outcome is known. Run live since 2007–2008 and never re-optimised on the episodes it is judged against, the system turned defensive ahead of the four major bear markets (2000, 2008, 2020, 2022) and issued no false exit on the two large corrections that weren't (1998, Q4-2018). See the Evidence page.
Who it's for
Business owners, savers and anyone who wants to understand the cycle without professional terminals or jargon. For investment committees, family offices and boards, we produce the Institutional Macro & Markets Report on demand, subject to qualification.
Who is behind it
FGA Research & Advisory, an independent research firm founded in Madrid in 2006. Independence. Capital. Conviction. Francisco Salvador is an agent of Miraltabank, regulated by the Bank of Spain. FGA Macro content is proprietary editorial analysis, not a Miraltabank product. Full founder profile: fgaresearch.com/francisco-salvador.
Notice
Descriptive reading of the cycle for informational and educational purposes. It is not advice or a recommendation — general or personalised — and does not refer to specific instruments.