The leading indicator confirms the turn — and the first crack in fear
Edition #2 · the weekly four-layer read of the market cycle.
The regime is still a compressed spring, but this week two things moved inside the layers.
This is how we read the cycle every week: four layers, made clear. Get it free in your inbox.
First, in the proprietary macro: our leading indicator crosses above its neutral level and confirms the early turn that last week was only hinted at.
Second, in sentiment: our composite still reads fear, but advisors and professional managers are turning long. The "everyone is afraid" that held the spring is starting to crack on the professional side.
The four layers: the cycle holds (green); sentiment in fear, with that first crack; liquidity — the Fed, with no meeting this week, keeps its tighter bias; and the proprietary macro, with the leading indicator now above neutral.
The model keeps the regime at compressed spring, unchanged. The cycle isn't broken, the leading indicator confirms, the base still fears, and the Fed presses from above.
This describes a state of the cycle; it is not a recommendation. It helps locate the moment for decisions of portfolio and of business: when to invest, hire or finance.
Three paths, as model probabilities, not a forecast. Base: still compressed. A loosening of the regime — a conditional scenario — if fear leaves its lows behind. Or a first leg down, if the cycle turns.
Each Sunday we read which phase of the cycle the market is in — and flag the day it changes. Editorial content, not investment advice.
The proof is open: Evidence — the proof is open
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