FGA Macro · Edition Zero — the market cycle in four layers
Our proprietary process for reading the market regime, explained.
The market can go from calm to apocalypse in 48 hours. The economy does not change in 48 hours — fear does. Telling one from the other is almost everything.
This is how we read the cycle every week: four layers, made clear. Get it free in your inbox.
That is why we publish FGA Macro. Not one more opinion: the proprietary series and audit methodology of FGA — the same process used to locate where we are in the cycle — explained clearly.
We cross four layers, and from their combination a single regime emerges:
— Warning Signal: is there structural damage? — Sentiment: how many are already in? — Monetary policy: is money blowing in your favour? — Proprietary macro: which phase of the cycle are we in?
This week's reading: a compressed spring. The cycle holds and the macro sees no recession; sentiment sits at an extreme. The market can keep rising, but with less margin.
In the 33-year study, the four big contractions were characterised in advance by the deterioration of these signals. Illustrative historical results.
We don't say what to buy or sell. We give the map: which phase of the cycle the market is in, before the consensus.
Editorial content, not investment advice.
Reading this from an investment committee?
FGA Research distributes its institutional Macro & Markets report on demand and subject to prior qualification: the same four-layer process, with the full proprietary series and watchlist. If you allocate capital, manage risk or set strategy for a committee, write to us stating your role and mandate. We confirm eligibility and send the full report within 24h.
Information, not advice. Independence. Capital. Conviction.
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The proof is open — working paper (DOI), independent indexing and a live forward test: Evidence — the proof is open
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